Current bitcoin money supply
Some concerns have been raised that private transactions could be used for illegal purposes with Bitcoin. However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin will undoubtedly be subjected to similar regulations that are already in place inside existing financial systems. Bitcoin cannot be more anonymous than cash and it is not likely to prevent criminal investigations from being conducted. Additionally, Bitcoin is also designed to prevent a large range of financial crimes.
When a user loses his wallet, it has the effect of removing money out of circulation. Lost bitcoins still remain in the block chain just like any other bitcoins. However, lost bitcoins remain dormant forever because there is no way for anybody to find the private key s that would allow them to be spent again. Because of the law of supply and demand, when fewer bitcoins are available, the ones that are left will be in higher demand and increase in value to compensate. The Bitcoin network can already process a much higher number of transactions per second than it does today.
It is, however, not entirely ready to scale to the level of major credit card networks. Work is underway to lift current limitations, and future requirements are well known. Since inception, every aspect of the Bitcoin network has been in a continuous process of maturation, optimization, and specialization, and it should be expected to remain that way for some years to come.
As traffic grows, more Bitcoin users may use lightweight clients, and full network nodes may become a more specialized service. For more details, see the Scalability page on the Wiki. To the best of our knowledge, Bitcoin has not been made illegal by legislation in most jurisdictions. However, some jurisdictions such as Argentina and Russia severely restrict or ban foreign currencies.
Other jurisdictions such as Thailand may limit the licensing of certain entities such as Bitcoin exchanges. Regulators from various jurisdictions are taking steps to provide individuals and businesses with rules on how to integrate this new technology with the formal, regulated financial system. Bitcoin is money, and money has always been used both for legal and illegal purposes. Cash, credit cards and current banking systems widely surpass Bitcoin in terms of their use to finance crime.
Bitcoin can bring significant innovation in payment systems and the benefits of such innovation are often considered to be far beyond their potential drawbacks. Bitcoin is designed to be a huge step forward in making money more secure and could also act as a significant protection against many forms of financial crime. For instance, bitcoins are completely impossible to counterfeit. Users are in full control of their payments and cannot receive unapproved charges such as with credit card fraud.
Bitcoin transactions are irreversible and immune to fraudulent chargebacks. Bitcoin allows money to be secured against theft and loss using very strong and useful mechanisms such as backups, encryption, and multiple signatures. Some concerns have been raised that Bitcoin could be more attractive to criminals because it can be used to make private and irreversible payments.
However, these features already exist with cash and wire transfer, which are widely used and well-established. The use of Bitcoin will undoubtedly be subjected to similar regulations that are already in place inside existing financial systems, and Bitcoin is not likely to prevent criminal investigations from being conducted. In general, it is common for important breakthroughs to be perceived as being controversial before their benefits are well understood.
The Internet is a good example among many others to illustrate this. The Bitcoin protocol itself cannot be modified without the cooperation of nearly all its users, who choose what software they use. Attempting to assign special rights to a local authority in the rules of the global Bitcoin network is not a practical possibility.
Any rich organization could choose to invest in mining hardware to control half of the computing power of the network and become able to block or reverse recent transactions. However, there is no guarantee that they could retain this power since this requires to invest as much than all other miners in the world.
It is however possible to regulate the use of Bitcoin in a similar way to any other instrument. Just like the dollar, Bitcoin can be used for a wide variety of purposes, some of which can be considered legitimate or not as per each jurisdiction's laws.
In this regard, Bitcoin is no different than any other tool or resource and can be subjected to different regulations in each country. Bitcoin use could also be made difficult by restrictive regulations, in which case it is hard to determine what percentage of users would keep using the technology. A government that chooses to ban Bitcoin would prevent domestic businesses and markets from developing, shifting innovation to other countries.
The challenge for regulators, as always, is to develop efficient solutions while not impairing the growth of new emerging markets and businesses. Bitcoin is not a fiat currency with legal tender status in any jurisdiction, but often tax liability accrues regardless of the medium used. There is a wide variety of legislation in many different jurisdictions which could cause income, sales, payroll, capital gains, or some other form of tax liability to arise with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is freeing people to transact on their own terms. Each user can send and receive payments in a similar way to cash but they can also take part in more complex contracts.
Multiple signatures allow a transaction to be accepted by the network only if a certain number of a defined group of persons agree to sign the transaction. This allows innovative dispute mediation services to be developed in the future. Such services could allow a third party to approve or reject a transaction in case of disagreement between the other parties without having control on their money.
As opposed to cash and other payment methods, Bitcoin always leaves a public proof that a transaction did take place, which can potentially be used in a recourse against businesses with fraudulent practices.
It is also worth noting that while merchants usually depend on their public reputation to remain in business and pay their employees, they don't have access to the same level of information when dealing with new consumers.
The way Bitcoin works allows both individuals and businesses to be protected against fraudulent chargebacks while giving the choice to the consumer to ask for more protection when they are not willing to trust a particular merchant.
New bitcoins are generated by a competitive and decentralized process called "mining". This process involves that individuals are rewarded by the network for their services.
Bitcoin miners are processing transactions and securing the network using specialized hardware and are collecting new bitcoins in exchange.
The Bitcoin protocol is designed in such a way that new bitcoins are created at a fixed rate. This makes Bitcoin mining a very competitive business. When more miners join the network, it becomes increasingly difficult to make a profit and miners must seek efficiency to cut their operating costs.
No central authority or developer has any power to control or manipulate the system to increase their profits. Every Bitcoin node in the world will reject anything that does not comply with the rules it expects the system to follow.
Bitcoins are created at a decreasing and predictable rate. The number of new bitcoins created each year is automatically halved over time until bitcoin issuance halts completely with a total of 21 million bitcoins in existence. At this point, Bitcoin miners will probably be supported exclusively by numerous small transaction fees. Bitcoins have value because they are useful as a form of money. Bitcoin has the characteristics of money durability, portability, fungibility, scarcity, divisibility, and recognizability based on the properties of mathematics rather than relying on physical properties like gold and silver or trust in central authorities like fiat currencies.
In short, Bitcoin is backed by mathematics. With these attributes, all that is required for a form of money to hold value is trust and adoption. In the case of Bitcoin, this can be measured by its growing base of users, merchants, and startups. As with all currency, bitcoin's value comes only and directly from people willing to accept them as payment.
The price of a bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. When demand for bitcoins increases, the price increases, and when demand falls, the price falls. There is only a limited number of bitcoins in circulation and new bitcoins are created at a predictable and decreasing rate, which means that demand must follow this level of inflation to keep the price stable. Because Bitcoin is still a relatively small market compared to what it could be, it doesn't take significant amounts of money to move the market price up or down, and thus the price of a bitcoin is still very volatile.
History is littered with currencies that failed and are no longer used, such as the German Mark during the Weimar Republic and, more recently, the Zimbabwean dollar.
Although previous currency failures were typically due to hyperinflation of a kind that Bitcoin makes impossible, there is always potential for technical failures, competing currencies, political issues and so on.
As a basic rule of thumb, no currency should be considered absolutely safe from failures or hard times. Bitcoin has proven reliable for years since its inception and there is a lot of potential for Bitcoin to continue to grow. However, no one is in a position to predict what the future will be for Bitcoin. A fast rise in price does not constitute a bubble.
An artificial over-valuation that will lead to a sudden downward correction constitutes a bubble. Choices based on individual human action by hundreds of thousands of market participants is the cause for bitcoin's price to fluctuate as the market seeks price discovery.
Reasons for changes in sentiment may include a loss of confidence in Bitcoin, a large difference between value and price not based on the fundamentals of the Bitcoin economy, increased press coverage stimulating speculative demand, fear of uncertainty, and old-fashioned irrational exuberance and greed. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to its investors from their own money, or the money paid by subsequent investors, instead of from profit earned by the individuals running the business.
Ponzi schemes are designed to collapse at the expense of the last investors when there is not enough new participants. Bitcoin is a free software project with no central authority. Consequently, no one is in a position to make fraudulent representations about investment returns.
Like other major currencies such as gold, United States dollar, euro, yen, etc. This leads to volatility where owners of bitcoins can unpredictably make or lose money. Beyond speculation, Bitcoin is also a payment system with useful and competitive attributes that are being used by thousands of users and businesses.
Some early adopters have large numbers of bitcoins because they took risks and invested time and resources in an unproven technology that was hardly used by anyone and that was much harder to secure properly. Many early adopters spent large numbers of bitcoins quite a few times before they became valuable or bought only small amounts and didn't make huge gains. There is no guarantee that the price of a bitcoin will increase or drop. This is very similar to investing in an early startup that can either gain value through its usefulness and popularity, or just never break through.
Bitcoin is still in its infancy, and it has been designed with a very long-term view; it is hard to imagine how it could be less biased towards early adopters, and today's users may or may not be the early adopters of tomorrow.
Bitcoin is unique in that only 21 million bitcoins will ever be created. However, this will never be a limitation because transactions can be denominated in smaller sub-units of a bitcoin, such as bits - there are 1,, bits in 1 bitcoin. Bitcoins can be divided up to 8 decimal places 0. The deflationary spiral theory says that if prices are expected to fall, people will move purchases into the future in order to benefit from the lower prices.
That fall in demand will in turn cause merchants to lower their prices to try and stimulate demand, making the problem worse and leading to an economic depression.
Although this theory is a popular way to justify inflation amongst central bankers, it does not appear to always hold true and is considered controversial amongst economists. Consumer electronics is one example of a market where prices constantly fall but which is not in depression. Similarly, the value of bitcoins has risen over time and yet the size of the Bitcoin economy has also grown dramatically along with it.
Because both the value of the currency and the size of its economy started at zero in , Bitcoin is a counterexample to the theory showing that it must sometimes be wrong. Notwithstanding this, Bitcoin is not designed to be a deflationary currency. It is more accurate to say Bitcoin is intended to inflate in its early years, and become stable in its later years.
The only time the quantity of bitcoins in circulation will drop is if people carelessly lose their wallets by failing to make backups. With a stable monetary base and a stable economy, the value of the currency should remain the same. This is a chicken and egg situation. For bitcoin's price to stabilize, a large scale economy needs to develop with more businesses and users. For a large scale economy to develop, businesses and users will seek for price stability.
Fortunately, volatility does not affect the main benefits of Bitcoin as a payment system to transfer money from point A to point B. It is possible for businesses to convert bitcoin payments to their local currency instantly, allowing them to profit from the advantages of Bitcoin without being subjected to price fluctuations.
Since Bitcoin offers many useful and unique features and properties, many users choose to use Bitcoin. With such solutions and incentives, it is possible that Bitcoin will mature and develop to a degree where price volatility will become limited. Only a fraction of bitcoins issued to date are found on the exchange markets for sale.
Bitcoin markets are competitive, meaning the price of a bitcoin will rise or fall depending on supply and demand. Additionally, new bitcoins will continue to be issued for decades to come. Therefore even the most determined buyer could not buy all the bitcoins in existence.
This situation isn't to suggest, however, that the markets aren't vulnerable to price manipulation; it still doesn't take significant amounts of money to move the market price up or down, and thus Bitcoin remains a volatile asset thus far. For now, Bitcoin remains by far the most popular decentralized virtual currency, but there can be no guarantee that it will retain that position.
There is already a set of alternative currencies inspired by Bitcoin. It is however probably correct to assume that significant improvements would be required for a new currency to overtake Bitcoin in terms of established market, even though this remains unpredictable.
Bitcoin could also conceivably adopt improvements of a competing currency so long as it doesn't change fundamental parts of the protocol. Receiving notification of a payment is almost instant with Bitcoin. However, there is a delay before the network begins to confirm your transaction by including it in a block.
A confirmation means that there is a consensus on the network that the bitcoins you received haven't been sent to anyone else and are considered your property. Once your transaction has been included in one block, it will continue to be buried under every block after it, which will exponentially consolidate this consensus and decrease the risk of a reversed transaction. Each confirmation takes between a few seconds and 90 minutes, with 10 minutes being the average.
If the transaction pays too low a fee or is otherwise atypical, getting the first confirmation can take much longer. Every user is free to determine at what point they consider a transaction sufficiently confirmed, but 6 confirmations is often considered to be as safe as waiting 6 months on a credit card transaction.
Transactions can be processed without fees, but trying to send free transactions can require waiting days or weeks. Although fees may increase over time, normal fees currently only cost a tiny amount. By default, all Bitcoin wallets listed on Bitcoin. Transaction fees are used as a protection against users sending transactions to overload the network and as a way to pay miners for their work helping to secure the network.
The precise manner in which fees work is still being developed and will change over time. Because the fee is not related to the amount of bitcoins being sent, it may seem extremely low or unfairly high.
Instead, the fee is relative to the number of bytes in the transaction, so using multisig or spending multiple previously-received amounts may cost more than simpler transactions. If your activity follows the pattern of conventional transactions, you won't have to pay unusually high fees. The bitcoins will appear next time you start your wallet application. Bitcoins are not actually received by the software on your computer, they are appended to a public ledger that is shared between all the devices on the network.
If you are sent bitcoins when your wallet client program is not running and you later launch it, it will download blocks and catch up with any transactions it did not already know about, and the bitcoins will eventually appear as if they were just received in real time.
Your wallet is only needed when you wish to spend bitcoins. Long synchronization time is only required with full node clients like Bitcoin Core. Technically speaking, synchronizing is the process of downloading and verifying all previous Bitcoin transactions on the network. For some Bitcoin clients to calculate the spendable balance of your Bitcoin wallet and make new transactions, it needs to be aware of all previous transactions.
This step can be resource intensive and requires sufficient bandwidth and storage to accommodate the full size of the block chain. For Bitcoin to remain secure, enough people should keep using full node clients because they perform the task of validating and relaying transactions. Mining is the process of spending computing power to process transactions, secure the network, and keep everyone in the system synchronized together.
It can be perceived like the Bitcoin data center except that it has been designed to be fully decentralized with miners operating in all countries and no individual having control over the network. This process is referred to as "mining" as an analogy to gold mining because it is also a temporary mechanism used to issue new bitcoins. Unlike gold mining, however, Bitcoin mining provides a reward in exchange for useful services required to operate a secure payment network.
Mining will still be required after the last bitcoin is issued. Anybody can become a Bitcoin miner by running software with specialized hardware. Mining software listens for transactions broadcast through the peer-to-peer network and performs appropriate tasks to process and confirm these transactions.
Bitcoin miners perform this work because they can earn transaction fees paid by users for faster transaction processing, and newly created bitcoins issued into existence according to a fixed formula. For new transactions to be confirmed, they need to be included in a block along with a mathematical proof of work. Such proofs are very hard to generate because there is no way to create them other than by trying billions of calculations per second.
Money is either created by the central bank or money is created by commercial and other banks. Money created directly by the central bank is called the monetary base. It comprises currency in circulation notes and coins and deposits of monetary financial institutions MFIs at the central bank.
The monetary base is also called high-powered money because an increase in the monetary base can multiply to a much larger increase in the total money supply. The central bank applies a number of measures when it wants to create additional money. Through open market operations the central bank grants loans to MFIs against collateral. Commercial banks create money through lending. When a person holds a deposit at a bank, the bank can take this money and lend it out to a borrower. The borrowed money in turn will be held as a deposit at a bank unless it is converted to paper money which again can lend this money out.
Money creation from lending already existed in ancient societies where all money was represented by physical precious coins. Imagine someone takes one coin to buy a vase. The seller of the vase holds this coin as a deposit at his bank. The bank lends this coin out to a second person. This second person also buys a vase for this coin and the seller brings the coin to the bank again. This process could be continued endlessly, as long as the bank finds enough trustworthy borrowers.
In this example, one physical coin bought two vases worth two coins in total. When money is created through lending this is also called fractional reserve banking. We can calculate the maximum amount of money created from fractional reserve banking with the money multiplier. The money multiplier equals 1 divided by the reserve ratio. This also highlights why the monetary base is called high-powered money.
The money supply of fiat currencies is clustered in three groups called M1, M2 and M3. The definitions of what counts as money and to which of the three groups it belongs varies. An overview is sufficient for our purposes. M1 is also called narrow money. It includes notes and coins in circulation plus deposits of people and non-financial businesses the public held in current or checking accounts at MFIs.
M2 includes M1 plus savings deposits and time deposits. M3 includes M2 plus money market instruments with a maturity of less than 2 years.
It is important to note that M1 contains both, money created by the central bank as well as money created by commercial banks. These EUR bn are the basis for fractional reserve banking. Therefore the effective money multiplier in the Euro zone is currently somewhere at Now that we have introduced money supply and money creation for a fiat currency, we can look at these terms from a Bitcoin point of view.
Bitcoins are created through mining. Mining is comparable to the original endowment of the public with money that was created by the central bank. Therefore mined Bitcoins are part of the Bitcoin monetary base. However, there are significant differences between mining and money creation by the central bank. When the public is endowed with new money after a currency reform, money creation by the central bank does not stop.
The central bank keeps increasing the monetary base further which can cause inflation. In the Bitcoin currency system nobody can increase the Bitcoin monetary base beyond the Bitcoins that are created from mining. There is no central bank in power. Mining is the only source for the Bitcoin monetary base. Thus, mined Bitcoins are the Bitcoin monetary base — and not just a part of it. Also, we never know how much money will be created by a central bank in the future.
In contrast, Bitcoin mining is predictable. We know with high certainty how many Bitcoins will be mined over a specified time and therefore the growth rate of the Bitcoin monetary base is predictable. As we can see on the following chart the growth rate will decline dramatically in the near future. Bitcoin monetary base and growth actual until and projection until ; data source: As we have seen with the fiat currency, the second way of money creation is lending by commercial banks.
If lending activities existed in the Bitcoin currency as well, the total Bitcoin money supply would exceed the number of mined Bitcoins the Bitcoin monetary base. Such Bitcoin lending operations already do exist. Such sites are listed under the lending section of the Bitcoin Wiki Trade page. Some of these sites are based on a peer-to-peer lending model and some operate like a Bitcoin bank.
In the latter case the site collects deposits and grants loans to Bitcoin borrowers directly. Both models have certain advantages and drawbacks. The important point to note is that Bitcoin lending does take place.
This means Bitcoins are not only created from mining but also from lending. However, the number of Bitcoin lending sites is not large. Even though they do not publish any figures, it can be assumed that relative to mined Bitcoins, the number of Bitcoins created through lending is small. Since Bitcoin lending currently is not explicitly regulated, there is no fractional reserve requirement.
One could argue, this means that the money multiplier is theoretically infinite. A Bitcoin bank could lend the deposits it holds ad infinitum.