Bitcoin 2014 price prediction
But to graze with the cattles is another. By taking part in the experiment the outcome over time is not predictable. You add an element to the unpredictability. There is indeed nothing new with this approach: I used it back in when trading on the interest rate futures for a French bank, then a Houston-based Commodity trading advisor.
The returns were good. Am I missing something? It appears these guys didn't actually trade anything. So these results mean nothing. My algorithm did 80x over 6 months and I'm an undergrad working alone Bayesian regression was used 25 years ago to predict stock returns with no great success. The problem is data-mining bias, which the authors do not address. They select the best performing models without a correction for multiple comparisons.
Obviously, the best model did well but many other models failed. The problem is which model to use forward. Add friction and you get a negative result. Let the algorithm wars commence! If you want to make money, find an unsophisticated place and start a smart war. The algorithm that evolves the quickest wins. Long-Term Capital Management rev 2. Taleb has written extensively on the errors of this general approach. Interesting how people are attracted to the idea of getting money without producing anything of value.
If you give me the ton of money that those guys got to produce such a crappy paper, I will debunk it and explain everything that is wrong with this They would have done better to simply buy at the start and sell at the end.
This is all over fitted. These sort of papers are worth less than the paper to print them. It is a shame that prestigious institutions such as MIT allow to publish such a rubbish.
I am in the business of automated trading since years and papers showing such results are seldom reproducible. Authors claiming such a performance should either a provide access to code and data to make their experiments reproducible after all this is science , or b stop working in academia and start their hedge fund. Those not acting according to a or b are charlatans, see http: Note that someone tried to reproduce the results of the paper here: The heavy math needs the manually picked-up clusters to work Biologists discover function of gene linked to familial ALS For food-aid recipients, information is power Addressing bias, inequality, and accessibility in breastfeeding 3 Questions: Vipin Narang on the North Korea summits Self-driving cars for country roads Understanding the proton's weak side Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies The tenured engineers of Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies Self-driving cars for country roads Building AI systems that make fair decisions Vinod Vaikuntanathan wins Edgerton Faculty Award.
The tenured engineers of Celebrating 21st century statistics Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies Self-driving cars for country roads. Fluorescent dye could enable sharper biological imaging Depth-sensing imaging system can peer through fog Scientists gain new visibility into quantum information transfer Exploring his depth of field. Understanding the proton's weak side For food-aid recipients, information is power Fundamental equations guide marine robots to optimal sampling sites MIT-Abu Dhabi collaboration fosters thriving academic network.
On alien typos and self-care, in conversation with Seth Meyers What will we eat in the year ? The tenured engineers of Fundamental equations guide marine robots to optimal sampling sites Spinning data into sound Celebrating 21st century statistics. Seven lessons from Dropbox Celebrating great mentorship for graduate students.
Searching for materials that collect and store energy 3Q: Students prepare for real-world product development through hands-on collaboration Chinese entrepreneurs visit MIT Sloan Study: Ethanol not a major factor in reducing gas prices MIT Sloan alumna finds elixir for successful integrative medicine practice.
Untangling DNA knots Implantable islet cells come with their own oxygen supply Celebrating great mentorship for graduate students P. Thibaut Brian, professor emeritus of chemical engineering, dies at Playwrights Lab gives young writers a professional experience Featured video: Taking a leap in bioinspired robotics The tenured engineers of Bound for robotic glory.
Using data science to improve public policy Helping Mexico design an effective climate policy Clearing the air Clearing the Old Smoke. Courtesy of the researchers. Comments Kenneth October 21, It appears these guys didn't actually trade anything. So these results mean nothing. My algorithm did 80x over 6 months and I'm an undergrad working alone Bayesian regression was used 25 years ago to predict stock returns with no great success.
The problem is data-mining bias, which the authors do not address. They select the best performing models without a correction for multiple comparisons. Obviously, the best model did well but many other models failed. The problem is which model to use forward.
Add friction and you get a negative result. Let the algorithm wars commence! If you want to make money, find an unsophisticated place and start a smart war. The algorithm that evolves the quickest wins. Long-Term Capital Management rev 2. Taleb has written extensively on the errors of this general approach. Interesting how people are attracted to the idea of getting money without producing anything of value. If you give me the ton of money that those guys got to produce such a crappy paper, I will debunk it and explain everything that is wrong with this They would have done better to simply buy at the start and sell at the end.
This is all over fitted. These sort of papers are worth less than the paper to print them. It is a shame that prestigious institutions such as MIT allow to publish such a rubbish. I am in the business of automated trading since years and papers showing such results are seldom reproducible. Authors claiming such a performance should either a provide access to code and data to make their experiments reproducible after all this is science , or b stop working in academia and start their hedge fund.
Those not acting according to a or b are charlatans, see http: Note that someone tried to reproduce the results of the paper here: The heavy math needs the manually picked-up clusters to work Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies Self-driving cars for country roads Building AI systems that make fair decisions Vinod Vaikuntanathan wins Edgerton Faculty Award.
Celebrating 21st century statistics Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies Self-driving cars for country roads Computation counts. Fluorescent dye could enable sharper biological imaging Depth-sensing imaging system can peer through fog Scientists gain new visibility into quantum information transfer Exploring his depth of field. Celebrating 21st century statistics 3Q: On alien typos and self-care, in conversation with Seth Meyers What will we eat in the year ? Celebrating 21st century statistics J-WEL names spring grant recipients Protecting confidentiality in genomic studies Self-driving cars for country roads.
Seven lessons from Dropbox Celebrating great mentorship for graduate students. Searching for materials that collect and store energy 3Q: J-WEL names spring grant recipients 3Q: Alan Lightman on science, religion, and our yearning for absolute knowledge Featured video: Celebrating great mentorship for graduate students MIT rates No.
Making landmark texts in architecture and urban studies accessible to the world Tata Center adds eight new projects to its portfolio. Taking a leap in bioinspired robotics The tenured engineers of Bound for robotic glory.
Using data science to improve public policy Helping Mexico design an effective climate policy Clearing the air Clearing the Old Smoke. Courtesy of the researchers. Comments Kenneth October 21, How do I give you my money? And how will it get it back if it is a success? YOP October 21, Dominik Z October 21, I'm happy to give you my money to invest haha. Johnathan James October 21, Marcus Walker October 21, Kevin October 21, Dave Wu October 21,