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We explore the possibility that this miner contains a new more advanced form of technology, which is less efficient than ASICs, but potentially partially immune to PoW algorithm changes.
We then conclude that whether this particular Ethereum chip is capable of this or not, this type of technology may eventually end the era of anti-ASIC PoW changes designed to improve decentralisation, such that crypto-coin communities may have to accept the inevitability of ASICs. Bitmain have recently launched a new Ethereum miner, widely believed to be an ASIC, and it is expected to ship in late July However, many in the Ethereum community oppose ASICs and prefer GPU mining, since GPU companies are primarily concerned with gaming rather than crypto-coins, which should mean that the hardware is distributed more widely and fairly, improving decentralisation.
Therefore a risk to Bitmain could be that the Ethereum community decide to hardfork to change the PoW algorithm, which could devalue the Bitmain machines and result in a large wasted investment. In this report, we speculate that Bitmain may already be one step ahead of the Ethereum community.
Developing a custom chip requires a considerable financial investment and therefore we think Bitmain may have taken some countermeasures to avoid another loss. This could make an Ethereum hardfork PoW change mostly pointless. Even after factoring in the sharp increase in value of the Monero coin, this is an extraordinary growth rate.
After Monero developers announced plans for a hardfork, Bitmain began to sell Monero ASICs on their website, indicating that they could indeed have been mining in secret. After the PoW change, as Figure 1 shows, the Monero hashrate dropped off significantly.
Although this coin had a lower value than Monero, it had a higher hashrate, since there was little else for the Monero ASICs to mine. There was no replay protection implemented for the split, however Monero increased the ring signature limit, therefore one can split Monero and Monero Original by first initiating a transaction on the Monero Original chain with fewer ring signatures than are allowed on Monero less than 7.
Figure 1 — Monero hashrate compared to Monero price. Figure 2 — Monero hashrate compared to Monero price — Rolling day percentage growth of 7-day moving average. In the 7 days following the PoW hardfork, the hashrate rolling average excludes the period prior to the hardfork. As we mentioned above, Bitmain has recently launched a new Ethereum miner, which is expected to ship around late July Given the history with Monero and the fact that many in the Ethereum community, including those mining Ethereum at home on GPUs, are likely to be unhappy at a new Bitmain product, Bitmain may be concerned.
One downside to the new miner could be increased miner centralization, but in addition to this, the product may also receive hostility from some in the Ethereum community due to their financial interests in the existing Ethereum miners, GPUs. The advertised specification of the product is disclosed above. As the table below illustrates, a back -of-the-envelope calculation could imply this new Ethereum miner is less efficient than one would expect if it was an ASIC, based on comparisons with the efficiency gain measured on some of the other ASICs related to other coins.
In contrast the new Ethereum miner is only c. However, we appreciate that the below table is a crude approximation which ignores many crucial variables and factors, such as the memory-intensive nature of the Ethereum mining algorithm. But although the calculation is inaccurate, the figures can still potentially illustrate a point: Figure 4 — Approximate miner efficiency calculations.
In , ASICs designed for specific hash functions emerged. Figure 5 — Crypto-coin chip type timeline. The inclusion of Vector Processors VPs towards the end of is speculative. It might be possible that Bitmain has developed a new type of chip, a Vector Processor. The architecture of this chip could be designed for PoW hash functions in general, but not for a specific hash function.
It is possible that the new Ethereum miner falls into this category of chip, although this is mostly speculation on our part. Figure 6 — The evolution of crypto-coin chip types. Ethereum ETH — onwards. However the chip itself, which is the area that requires by far the most financial investment, could be more general and not specifically designed for Ethereum. Therefore if Ethereum conducts a PoW change, it could be possible to direct the chips into a new device as they leave the foundry or perhaps even recover the chips from the old device put them into a new Ethereum miner.
Although again, at this point we are speculating. They are doing very well. We expect them to slowly move to the AI area. Q1 earnings call. Since any such chip may be able to switch between hashing algorithms, at a stretch, one could argue this falls within the scope of AI. It remains to be seen if the chip is merely programmable, like modern GPUs, or if there is a trick up its sleeve that could give it an efficiency gain vs.
GPUs in most cases. If present, this advanced technological capability is likely to be seen as a major achievement for Bitmain. Such technology may also be even more expensive to develop and more specialised than the technology in ASICs, which could make the decentralisation problem even worse.
Despite the above, we have not yet seen any strong indications of the deployment of the new chips on the Ethereum network. Figure 8 — Ethereum hashrate compared to Ethereum price — Rolling day percentage growth of 7-day moving average. Despite what we have said above, most of the content in this article should be considered guesswork.
However, even if we are wrong about this particular chip, we still think it is reasonably likely that at some point in the future, Bitmain or another company, will develop a general-purpose hashing chip, which is more efficient than GPUs for almost all hashing algorithms.
At this point the era of anti-ASIC PoW changes could be over, with crypto-coin communities having to make a choice between two potentially unfavourable outcomes: Unless of course proof-of-stake systems prove robust enough. Whilst many claims made in this note are cited, we do not guarantee accuracy. Overview Bitmain have recently launched a new Ethereum miner, widely believed to be an ASIC, and it is expected to ship in late July Figure 1 — Monero hashrate compared to Monero price Source: Bitmain The advertised specification of the product is disclosed above.
Figure 5 — Crypto-coin chip type timeline Source: The inclusion of Vector Processors VPs towards the end of is speculative It might be possible that Bitmain has developed a new type of chip, a Vector Processor. Ethereum hashrate growth — No evidence of deployment of the new chips Despite the above, we have not yet seen any strong indications of the deployment of the new chips on the Ethereum network.
I have a very similar impression myself Despite what we have said above, most of the content in this article should be considered guesswork. Allowing ASICs, or, Allowing general purpose hashing chips, where technologies and production capabilities could be even more concentrated.
Disclaimer Whilst many claims made in this note are cited, we do not guarantee accuracy. Bitcoin BTC — to Bitmain, Canaan Creative, Ebang, Innosilicon.