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The simExchange is a web-based prediction market in which players use virtual money to buy and sell stocks and futures contracts in upcoming video game properties. The main purpose of the web site is to predict trends in the video game industry, particularly how upcoming products will sell and how they will be received by the critics.
For those who do not participate in the prediction market, the web site is a database of sales forecasts and game quality forecasts that are updated in real-time.
The web site also features a number of " Wisdom of the crowd "-type content collaboration and aggregation tools, including means for sharing information, articles, images, and videos about the games. The prediction market works as a stock market game for players to predict the number of units a game or console hardware will sell or the reviews a game will receive. These tradable contracts directly forecast the metric, for example: If a stock is priced at DKP , this corresponds to a forecast of 1 million units.
If a trader believes the product will sell more than 1 million units, then he would buy the stock, if he believes the product will sell less than 1 million units, then he would sell the stock. In this way, the simExchange is a type of stock market game. The website also features a number of user tools to aggregate and display information about video games and publishers. In addition to a message board for each game, the simExchange advertises the ability of users to submit relevant news articles, [1] and to append images and videos of a game to its page.
In March , a number of these content submission tools, such as the ability to submit images and video, were removed due to lack of use, although the features remain advertised in the site's tutorials. DKP is the name of the virtual currency used on the simExchange. The currency was named after the dragon kill points used in many massively multiplayer online games. Unlike some forms of virtual currency, DKP is not backed by real money. The simExchange aims to predict both the quantitative and qualitative sides of the video game industry.
It originally launched with only stocks that forecast the global lifetime sales of gaming products. On April 12, , the simExchange began public testing of monthly sales futures contracts, which later became known as NPD Futures.
A stock on the simExchange, also referred to as a Global Lifetime Sales stock or simply a GLS stock, represents the total global unit sales a video game product will sell through to consumers over the product's lifetime.
These stocks do not have a pre-determined expiration date as some games can sell for years. For global lifetime stocks, 1DKP equals 10, copies of that game sold. For example, if a trader thinks a game will sell , copies, that would correlate to a stock price of These futures covered the NPD Group's data on console hardware sales, game sales, and total software sales.
These contracts would cease trading one day before NPD reports were made public, and pay out at the end of the following day. For example, if the Xbox November Futures Contract is priced at The simExchange stopped offering NPD Futures Contracts after September , [10] although the archives of all forecasts up until this point are still available on the simExchange website.
A Metacritic Futures Contract is a virtual contract that predicts the metascore a game will receive from review aggregating website Metacritic. Despite not being directly based on sales data, metascores have been shown to be highly indicative of a game's sales. A Metacritic Future's price is directly related to the metascore.
For example, a The simExchange stopped offering Metacritic Futures after July due to lack of user interest in trading the contracts. Data produced by the simExchange has been noted as a resource for real-world investors. The metrics that are forecast are fundamental factors that drive the stocks of the companies that produce the games.
Users of the simExchange noticed a "sharp decline" in the number of users in , after NPD Futures were no longer offered as part of the game, [21] and site upkeep slowed to a crawl by mid From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
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Video Game Prediction market.