Clam asic bitcoin miner
27 commentsBitcoin price alert app ios
I am going to forecast tomorrow's Bitcoin price using GARCH in this article, I have explained in the previous articles how to forecast and debunked technical analysis tools. This is what I did in the previous article, I have forecasted 1 datapoint, and then the 2nd was updated after the new datapoint came out.
There was no future information leakage, I have triple checked it, so it was done properly, however just so you know that it was updated after every single datapoint, as I have used historical data obviously.
If the data is not updated, the forecast error adds up exponentially, and creates an avalanche effect , and the forecast totally derails. So you can see the difference, if the forecast is not updated after new data comes out, the forecast totally derails.
There is obviously no way to forecast accurately into the far future, it is just physically impossible. But still, forecasting 1 datapoint, is enough, and it is very very useful. The price might not be entirely correct since not all exchanges have the same price, so compare Blockchain. Today's price is not yet published there so it will be a 1. It is daily data obviously. I am not going to reveal the exact model that I am using, nor the parameters nor coefficients that I am using, because I am trading this too but not as a daytrader.
The model I have selected has a Mean Absolute Error of 0. It might not be a that much accurate forecast, but this is the best model I have found still. It is zoomed in so you should see on average how accurately we can forecast price change. Finally, we put it all together and construct the future price points, this is what our forecast tells us:. The information provided on this page might be incorrect. I am not responsible if you lose money using the information on this page!
This is not an investment advice, just my opinion and analysis for educational purposes. You can read my previous 3 articles, if you don't understand what I am talking about: Finally, we put it all together and construct the future price points, this is what our forecast tells us: Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.