Frequently Asked Questions
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I did not write it to be an organized, readable document. The questions which are here, are here because they were asked very frequently. Although substantially more complex, Hivemind offers correspondingly substantial benefits, having potentially world-changing implications for science, taxation, corporate governance and politics.
Hivemind, unlike all other 2. We pay for everything upfront design, development, review, testingwith no guarantee that the project will even make it through all of these risky phases without encountering a fatal problem. Such an approach, while admittedly effective at generating a community with skin-in-the-gamecreates a huge problem: Hivemind was designed by a Yale Statistician with degrees in the blockchain-relevant fields of econ, psychology, and mathematics, who has been passionate about prediction markets since long before Bitcoin princeton bitcoin prediction market created.
Hivemind was reviewed favorably by Andrew Poelstra, sidechains-co-author and skeptical princeton bitcoin prediction market of widely-circulated technical papers on cryptosystem stability. Gregory Maxwell has been aware of the project for months, Peter Todd is actively reviewing it. Roger Ver, who has famously invested-in and donated-to some of the most promising organizations and experiments in the Bitcoin space from original Ripple, to BitPay, to Purse.
Satoshi designed Bitcoin to be resistant to coercion. But he also noticed that the diffuse and regenerative bittorrent gnutella, et al were able to compete against the outdated film and record industry; hence a new e-cash which was P2P. Hivemind, similarly, reflects on the tragic fate of InTrade. I have more important work to do than to deal with the socially dysfunctional, in my view Bitcoin community.
My project requires no money, and uses Bitcoin whether the Bitcoin community, or any other community, likes it or not. Princeton bitcoin prediction market Ver hired the most skeptical and technically knowledgeable people in the area you know their names to review the design. So far, no design flaws have been brought forward by these reviewers. I understand why this question comes up despite the fact that, as open source software, the motivation or even identity of the software-author is completely irrelevant.
Given the frequent occurrence of scams in this community, even more skepticism than usual is warranted with even completely free projects. However, should one even occur, you are under no pressure to participate in this auction: Or, the VoteCoins could be privately owned and slowly leak onto the marketplace. It makes almost no difference to the user, just as the Walmart stock price has almost no effect on the individuals who shop at Walmart stores.
I can only speak for myself: I feel I owe a debt to society for the comfortable life I have enjoyed so far particularly where the internet and FOSS are concernedand I feel society must change as the result of injustices dealt princeton bitcoin prediction market me and my interests in the past. Secondly, this criticism is of the form: One of the most ridiculous things about this fallacy is its symmetry: Perhaps Blockstream is evil, or biased clearly, like everyone, they prefer their own work to that of others.
But no evidence of any wrongdoing has been brought to me. It is a no-brainer. They are also unlikely to attack Hivemind, for reasons similar but not identical to those motivating their non-attack of Bitcoin: It would be best to consult the whitepaper on this question, particularly the figures on pages of Whitepaper 1. The major reasons are that: Branch-owners are compelled to report on a capped number of questions called Decisions.
This restriction on the supply of reporting allows Branches to differentiate and thereby own and capture the economic value produced by their good behavior. Through something called Branching, each Branch can choose to split into two daughter Branches. It is a common misconception that the SVD-resolution algorithm is the main innovation behind Hivemind.
Many of the details of this algorithm are in this presentation and the whitepaper. Try and break my Resolution Demoand let princeton bitcoin prediction market know what you find! Princeton bitcoin prediction market cross-validate other votes, in addition to supplying the data used for Outcome-calculation. I did not base my own choice on trial-and-error, I instead based it on my day-to-day real-world truth-finding experiences.
If Voters are instructed to use a few external sources for comparisonthey can double-check their answers of course, if they believe others will NOT double-check, they will not either, so they might notor more importantly switch to a new source if the first is broken. I personally find it highly unlikely that Yahoo or Google will start publishing wildly disparate financial index data, as they have every reason to ensure that the data is accurate.
Firstly, Authors who bear the economic cost of Market-Creation are rewarded with a slice of transaction volume. Recreational speculation is likely in markets covering sports and politics, arbitrage transactions are likely in princeton bitcoin prediction market tracking a price index, and in many cases, individuals will just disagree with each other passionately enough to begin wagering global warming, gun control, etc.
Secondly, the public might just pay for publicly useful information. Thirdly, although the information revealed by a PM is public, the effect of that revelation may be privately beneficial. Of course there is: Even betterindividuals would not try this if they suspected their CEO of actually being quite competent.
So there is actually an economically-efficient self-selection in the creation of these markets: Better still, competent CEOs may themselves create these markets to protect their job although I doubt this type of activity will happen for some time.
Fourth, individuals could collaborate via assurance contract to efficiently pool their info-demand. In fact, in my applications paperI describe a way of using PMs to create extremely incentive-powerful Trustless Dominant Assurance Contracts.
To my knowledge nothing similar has ever been conceived. Gambling is a game of luck…the return is unalterable by skill. In a casino, the odds do not change, expressing the static uselessness of the betting activity there. The variations in price produce information which is supremely reliable, as well as universally common. This information, produced nearly for free by the voluntary actions of individuals, has tremendous social value.
This rate has been stable over time and is independent of casino availabilitysuggesting that this is some kind of biological disposition. Similar to alcoholism, treatments for this unfortunate condition include step programs and Princeton bitcoin prediction market. The problem of addiction is quite a serious one…it is very difficult to prevent people from doing what they want to do. Even large nation-states, with well-funded law enforcement and court systems, are unable to dissuade many citizens from using drugs.
Even when these individuals princeton bitcoin prediction market actually incarcerated1 in 50 still can get access to their drugs in prison. Fortunately, just as individuals can choose to take drugs, they can also choose to join a support group or check themselves into rehab. Problem gambling princeton bitcoin prediction market exacerbated by fast, high payouts at highly improbable odds. Finally, the market environment does guarantee that these gamblers, at the very least, are always getting fair odds and charged minimal fees.
And, most finally of all, Bitcoin already enables a great deal of gambling. Hivemind seems unlikely to enable much marginal gambling, let alone marginal problem gambling. This question has grown in popularity to the degree that it warranted inclusion in the applications paper Appendix 1, forthcoming. However, these people will quickly start losing large quantities of money, and princeton bitcoin prediction market lose their ability to influence the market. For PMs which are bounded, it is possible to design them such that traders can always update the market price, by trading with an automated market maker powered by a market scoring rule.
The design requires a way to conditionally pay out money i. Even if drastically simplified, the design would fundamentally require those things. The price will not fix at 1 or 0 until voting occurs, but it will converge toward princeton bitcoin prediction market of those values as the event info is revealed ie just as the horse wins.
Judgment is inconvenient, and we would like to minimize inconvenience. Because of setup costs, it is likely easier for judges to sit down once per month, princeton bitcoin prediction market their leisure, and do all Decisions at that time, than it would be to force them to do this every week or every day. Monthly Princeton bitcoin prediction market allow for a two week vacation, for example. Ballots are encrypted, and contain a new destination public keyfor this reason.
Votes are cast in one period, and unsealed in a later period during which no new votes are cast. That depends on your definition of complex. In python, on an i5 processor, svd solves instantly for a matrix of dimensions x my expectation for the steady-state requirement. It is a common misconception that svd is performed frequently in my scheme. It is only performed once per Voting Cycle per month or so per Branch, upon the maturation of large batches of Decisions.
Actually it is necessary. Thirdly, voters princeton bitcoin prediction market not just contributing their point of view when princeton bitcoin prediction market vote, they are princeton bitcoin prediction market securing the network by validating the point of view of all other voters via the coordination game. Someone is already trying to do that and princeton bitcoin prediction market using my notes hereif anyone else wants to try and get this set up.
Although princeton bitcoin prediction market folder is labeled Qualtrics, I believe the current plan is to use Mechanical Turk following the Harvard study at PeerPrediction. Cryptocurrencies have the beautiful ability to preserve ownership by taking snapshots of the unspent-outputs set.
The reputation-tokens are more complex, but the obvious choice is to distribute them to individuals in proportion princeton bitcoin prediction market what they sacrificed to create the software. I had previously heard about the Princeton guys but I never heard any news from them and had forgotten about it.
Would be great to collaborate, but I had already finished most of my ideas when I found that article. To date I have heard nothing from them about their project. The long awaited paper did actually princeton bitcoin prediction market out. Unfortunately, we seem to disagree on the true nature of the problem of princeton bitcoin prediction market a decentralized prediction market.
Namely, in Section 5. The second major proposal in the paper is for an order book system. Instead, I chose to use market scoring rules, for a variety of reasons, one of which is that operating a MSR is extraordinarily similar to sending a normal Bitcoin transaction. The paper is not truly a proposal for anything, instead a sort of menu of different princeton bitcoin prediction market and avenues for decentralizing prediction markets. A novel is easier to assess than a dictionary, so it difficult princeton bitcoin prediction market me to critique the paper more directly than this.
If your question is missing, please email it to me or use a pull request link above.
