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Should Australia start its own cryptocurrency?
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The BIS hosts nine international organisations engaged in standard setting and the pursuit of financial stability through the Basel Process. Thank you for the invitation to speak at this important summit. It is an honour for me to be able to join you. Over recent times, the payments system has evolved tremendously and AusPayNet has been at the centre of this evolution. As a result of this work, same-day settlement for direct entry transactions was introduced, the Australian Payments Council was formed and, most importantly, the New Payments Platform NPP was developed.
I would like to thank both past and current members of the AusPayNet team for your contribution to this effort. If we look back over a slightly longer period, a clear lesson from history australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar that as people's needs change and technology improves, so too does the form that money takes. Once upon a time, people used clam shells and stones as money. And for a while, right here in the colony of New South Wales, rum was notoriously used.
For many hundreds of years, though, metal coins were the main form of money. Then, as printing technology developed, paper banknotes became the norm. The next advance in technology - developed right here in Australia - was the printing of banknotes on polymer. No doubt, this evolution will continue. Though predicting its exact nature is difficult. But as Australia's central bank, the RBA has been giving considerable thought as to what the future might look like.
We are the issuer of Australia's banknotes, the provider of exchange settlement accounts for the financial sector, and we have a broad responsibility for the efficiency of the payments system, so this is an important issue for us. Today I want to share with you some of our thinking about this future and to address a question that I am being asked increasingly frequently: Let's call it an eAUD. The short answer to this question is that we have no immediate plans to issue an electronic form of Australian dollar banknotes, but we are continuing to look at the pros and cons.
At the same time, we are also looking at how settlement arrangements with central bank money might evolve as new technologies emerge. As we have worked through the issues, we have developed a series of working hypotheses. I would like to use this opportunity to outline these hypotheses and then discuss each of them briefly.
As you will see, we have more confidence in some of these than others. An appropriate starting point is to recognise that most money is already digital or electronic. The rest is in the form of deposits, which, most of the time, can be accessed electronically. So the vast majority of what we know today as money is a liability of the private sector, and not the central bank, and is already electronic.
With australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar money available electronically, there has been a substantial shift to electronic forms of payments as well. There are various ways of tracking this shift. One is the survey of consumers that the RBA conducts every three years.
A second way of tracking the change is the decline in cash withdrawals from ATMs. This trend is likely to continue.
The third area where we can see this shift is the rapid growth in the number of debit and credit card transactions and in transactions using the direct entry system. This stands in contrast to the decline in the use of cash and cheques. The overall picture is pretty clear.
There has been a significant shift away from people using banknotes to making payments electronically. Most recently, Australia's enthusiastic adoption of 'tap-and-go' payments has added impetus to this shift. In many ways, Australians are ahead of others in the use of electronic payments, although we are not quite in the vanguard. Australians are clearly holding banknotes for purposes other than for making day-to-day payments.
This shift towards electronic payments, and away from the use of banknotes for payments, will surely continue. This will be driven partly by the increased use of mobile payment apps and australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar innovations.
At the same time, though, it is likely that banknotes will continue to play an important role in the Australian payments landscape for many years to come.
For many people, and for some types of transactions, banknotes are likely to remain the payment instrument of choice. In Australia, the banking system has provided the infrastructure that has made the shift to electronic payments possible. In some other countries, the banking system has not done this. For example, in China and Kenya non-bank entities have been at the forefront of recent strong growth in electronic payments.
A lesson here is that if financial institutions do not respond to customers' needs, others will. At this stage, it seems likely that the banking system will continue to provide the infrastructure that Australians use to make electronic payments. This is particularly so given the substantial investment made by Australia's financial institutions in the NPP. The new system was turned on for 'live proving' in late November and the public launch is scheduled for February.
The RBA has built a critical part of this infrastructure to ensure interbank settlement occurs in real time. Payments will be able to be made by just knowing somebody's email address or mobile phone number and plenty of information will be able to be sent with the payment. This system has the potential to be transformational and will allow many transactions that today are conducted with banknotes to be conducted electronically.
Importantly, the new system offers instant settlement and funds availability. It provides this, while at the same time allowing funds to be held in deposit accounts at financial institutions subject to strong prudential regulation and that pay interest.
This combination of attributes is not easy to replicate, including by closed-loop systems outside the banking system.
However, the further shift to electronic payments through the banking system is not a given. It requires that the cost to consumers and businesses of using the NPP is low and that the functionality expands over time. If this does not happen, then the experience of other countries suggests that alternative systems or technologies might emerge. One class of technology that has emerged that can be used for payments is the so-called cryptocurrencies, the most prominent of which is Bitcoin.
But in reality these currencies are not being commonly used for everyday payments and, as things currently stand, it is hard to see that changing. The value of Bitcoin is very volatile, the number of payments that can currently be handled is very low, there are governance problems, the transaction cost involved in making a payment with Bitcoin is very high and the estimates of the electricity used in the process of mining the coins are staggering.
When thought of purely as a payment instrument, it seems more likely to be attractive to those who want to make transactions in the black or illegal economy, rather than everyday transactions. So the current fascination with these currencies feels more like a speculative mania than it has to do with their use as an efficient and convenient form of electronic payment. This is not to say that other efficient and low-cost electronic payments methods will not emerge.
But there is a certain attraction of being able to make payments from funds held in prudentially regulated accounts that can earn interest. In principle, a new form of electronic payment method that could emerge would be some form of electronic banknotes, or electronic cash. The easiest case to think about is a form of electronic Australian dollar banknotes.
Such banknotes could coexist with the electronic account-to-account-based payments system operated by the banks, just as polymer banknotes coexist with the electronic systems today. The technologies for doing this on an economy-wide scale are still developing. It is possible that it could be achieved through a distributed ledger, although there are other possibilities as well.
The issuing authority could issue electronic currency in the form of files or 'tokens'. These tokens could be stored in digital wallets, provided by financial institutions and others. These tokens could then be used for payments in a similar way that physical banknotes are used today.
In thinking about this possibility there are a couple of important questions that I would like to highlight. The first is that if such a system were to be technologically feasible, who would australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar the tokens: In terms of the issuing authority, our working hypothesis is that this would best be done by the central bank. In principle, there is nothing preventing tokenised eAUDs being issued by the private sector.
It is conceivable, for example, that eAUD tokens could be issued by banks or even by large non-banks, although it is hard to see them being issued as cryptocurrency tokens under a bitcoin-style protocol, with no central entity standing behind the liability.
So, while a privately issued eAUD is conceivable, experience cautions that there are significant difficulties and dangers associated with privately issued fiat money. The history of private issuance is one of periodic panic and instability.
In times of uncertainty and stress, people don't want to hold privately issued fiat money. This is one reason why today physical banknotes are backed by central banks.
It is possible that ways might be found to deal with this financial stability issue - including full collateralisation - but these tend to be expensive. This suggests that if there were to be an electronic form of banknotes that was widely used by the community, it is probably better and more likely for it to be issued by the central bank.
If we were to head in this direction, australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar would be significant design issues to work through. The tokens could be issued in a way that transactions could be made with complete australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar, just as is the case with physical banknotes. Alternatively, they might be issued in a way in which transactions were auditable and traceable by relevant authorities.
We would also need to deal with the issue of possible counterfeiting. Depending upon the design of any system, we might be very reliant on cryptography and would need to be confident in the ability to resist malicious attacks. This brings me to the second issue here: Such a case would need to be built on electronic banknotes offering something that account-to-account australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar through the banking system do not.
We would also need to be confident that there were not material downsides from moving in this australias own bitcoin rba chief open to idea of electronic aussie dollar. Our current working hypothesis is that with the NPP there is likely to be little additional benefit from electronic banknotes. This, of course, presupposes that the NPP provides low-cost efficient payments. One possible benefit of electronic banknotes for some people might be that they could have less of an 'electronic fingerprint' than account-to-account transfers, although this would depend upon how the system was designed.
But having less of an electronic fingerprint hardly seems the basis for building a public policy case to issue an electronic form of the currency. So there would need to be more than this. If we were to issue electronic banknotes, it is possible that in times of banking system stress, people might seek to exchange their deposits in commercial banks for these banknotes, which are a claim on the central bank. It is likely that the process of switching from commercial bank deposits to digital banknotes would be easier than switching to physical banknotes.
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