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An improving economic environment and earnings optimism propelled markets higher, along with prospects that there might be some agreement on tax reform in Washington. The prospect of lower taxes for corporations and individuals are part of the proposals, while also targeting tax avoidance by multinational U. Effects of hurricane influenced rebuilding efforts underway in Texas and Florida are expected to become more visible via labor and materials data over the next few weeks.
Economists expect an increase in job placements and material costs as insurance claims start to pay out. Apart from hopeful tax reform passage, equity markets have soared due to stronger global demand, improving earnings, and fewer regulatory hurdles. Internationally, global growth surpassed 4. The data suggests that global production and consumption is increasing, eventually translating into higher earnings for global equities.
Repatriation of corporate cash is a top priority of tax reform where U. Should a reduced tax rate become effective on such large cash portions, companies could use the money to increase dividends, expand capital investment, hire employees, and make acquisitions. The subdued third quarter results are believed to be attributable to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma as economic activity came to a halt for portions of Texas and Florida.
Economists believe that rebuilding efforts following the storms will give GDP growth a boost in the fourth quarter. Proposed business tax reforms are expected to increase business investment, which has lagged in recent years. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis released data showing that business investment rose 6. Overall, a rising trend in business investment is a confirmation of improved confidence held by companies on economic and tax reform prospects. The Dow pierced through 24, towards the end of November as optimism about tax reform passage intensified.
A primary emphasis to reduce both corporate tax rates and small business rates accelerated equity prices higher as optimism grew with the realization of passage. The relationship between corporate taxes and equity valuations have been significant with the anticipation of a lower corporate rate, which has been elevating stocks ever since the election. Analysts view the recent decline in the technology sector as a form of market rotation, the exodus of assets from one market sector to another.
The anticipation of various tax reform proposals may adversely affect technology companies while benefiting other industry sectors.
The passage of tax reform might also prompt a further rotation to companies that may benefit from corporate tax proposals once in effect. Jerome Powell, the new chief of the Federal Reserve, was confirmed by the Senate this past month, is scheduled to replace Janet Yellen who has been in the position since February Jerome Powell, 64, is a lawyer by training and an investment banker by trade with extensive exposure in the financial industry. The Fed Chair is nominated by the President and serves for a four-year term, but may also be appointed for several additional terms.
The President also appoints the seven members of the Board of Governors, which are confirmed by the Senate and serve four-year terms. The selection and nominations for both Fed Chair and Board of Governor members can have political annotations, especially during periods of a new administration and economic change. Both equity and fixed income markets carefully follow the actions and policies set forth by the sitting Fed Chair, a determinant of the direction of economic expansion.
The anticipation of Fed rate hikes has gradually raised short-term rates this year, with the demand for longer-term bond maturities increasing. The result has been a flatter yield curve, where short-term rates have risen and long-term yields have dropped.
A flattening yield curve implies that longer-term economic growth may be subdued or not expected to be very extensive. At the end of November, short-term rates such as the 2-year Treasury yield had risen to 1. The longer-term year Treasury bond yield fell to 2.
As this occurs, it is expected that MBS prices will gradually fall and yields will gradually rise. Data tracked by the Federal Reserve shows that debt held by U. A favorite form of consumer debt, credit cards, rose by 3. The Fed report did note that delinquencies among credit cards and auto loans were rising, an indication that some households might be overstretched. The Fed tracks household debt by categories, such as mortgage, student, credit cards, home equity loans, and auto loans.
Over the decades, the most consistent and significant amount of household debt has been mortgages. The recent increase in total overall debt is primarily attributable to a steady rise in both student and auto loans. Recent Federal Reserve data shows that these two loan types are primarily held by younger consumers. The concern is that the difficulty of obtaining mortgage loans has led younger consumers to take out student and auto loans instead. An upturn in delinquent credit card debt is a concern to the Fed, since it has occurred during a period of job market strength.
The culprit might be that workers may not be earning more, but just working more. Euphoria has sweep Bitcoin to unreal levels over the past few weeks. Bitcoin, one of many digital currencies, shot past 11, in the final week of November after eclipsing 10, just hours prior.
The commodity futures trading commission granted the Chicago Board Options Exchange CBOE to issue Bitcoin futures which will allow traders to bet on the price of the digital currency via a trusted exchange. Traders will be allowed to bet on the appreciation of the cryptocurrency or the demise of it by buying and selling the futures. What took the equity markets decades to establish, the cryptocurrencies market is trying to build in mere months.
Bitcoins emerged in designed by a programmer or group of programmers under the name of Nakamoto, whose real identity remains unknown. New Bitcoins can only be created by solving complex math problems embedded in the currency keeping total growth limited. Many believe that the development of digital currency it is just beginning of a globally accepted process sometime available in the near future. Bitcoin could merely be a stepping stone to an eventual acceptance of digital currency.
Hence, Bitcoin has incredibly fast growing competition. Bitcoin is currently one of over other digital currencies in the marketplace. Digital currencies are being examined as a store of value and a method of making monetary payments. Gold, an accepted store of value, and currencies issued by countries have been established internationally for centuries and are and now challenged by the cyptocurrency concept.
One factor driving Bitcoin's growth has been the emergence of a broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. Bitcoin serves as the reserve currency for the cryptocurrency economy in much the same way that the dollar serves as the main anchor currency for international trade.
Bitcoin has been recognized as the first truly decentralized electronic payment network. A looming regulatory crackdown is affecting the digital currency as well. Bitcoin has already been hit by a crackdown from Chinese officials who have been severely restricting the use of cryptocurrencies. In the United States, there's little risk of a direct crackdown on Bitcoin, but there's a real risk that the Securities and Exchange Commission will crack down on the ICOs Initial Coin Offerings that have pushed Bitcoin's price upward.
An unregulated means by which funds are raised for new crypto currency bench ICOs are used by startups to bypass the rigorous and highly regulated capital raising environment. Bitcoins exist as software, not physical currency, and are not regulated by any country or banking authority. Senate hearings disclosed that Bitcoin could be a means of exchange, it gave no assurance that it would actually become an accepted medium of exchange.
Government regulations would need to be created and then enforced in order for Bitcoin to become accepted by other government entities. The currency can be traded without being tracked, thus raising the potential for illicit activity, such as involving weapons, drugs, and prostitution.
Even though Bitcoins are not illegal, it is not legally recognized by governments as a currency. Some compare Bitcoin to the tulip craze in Holland of , when speculators pushed the price of tulip bulbs to incredible levels, followed then by a collapse in the tulip bulb market.
Bitcoin has also surged on speculation that perhaps one day digital money will eventually become a legitimate global currency and even replacing currencies from certain countries.
Bitcoins are mined by powerful computers that calculate complex, mathematical functions. Total Bitcoin quantity is capped at 21 million and currently there are about The growing mobile payment industry could be a big benefactor to the acceptance of Bitcoin as new and creative applications are being devised to accept digital currency. Bitcoin transactions are very popular among mobile users, where rather than using a credit card or cash to make a purchase, all you need is your phone.
In , the value of Bitcoins fell by over fifty percent following remarks by China and Norway to not recognize the digital currency as legal tender. The government of Norway ruled that Bitcoin does not qualify as real currency but rather qualifies as an asset, producing taxable capital gains. More and more nations have been taking an official stance as the popularity of Bitcoins has evolved.
The European Banking Authority has warned about the risks of trading digital money and subject to losses where consumers are not protected by any government entity or authority. As digital currency evolves, some believe that it will eventually be accepted as a legitimate currency. Various studies have recently emerged with different opinions, such as a Stern School of Business study conducted by David Yermack, which concluded that Bitcoin behaves more like a speculative investment than a currency and has no currency attributes at all.
Senate and House Republicans each passed their own version of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, yet differ in various ways, setting arguments into motion. The closer the two sides are going into conference, the easier the resulting process. The focus of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is to lower taxes mainly for corporations and smaller businesses, and a portion of individual taxpayers. Targeted are wealthy individuals who live in high tax states that may lose valuable deductions.
So the emphasis of tax reform this time around is on reducing corporate taxes, paid for by higher taxes on wealthier individuals due to a sustained top tax rate and loss of various deductions. The Chained CPI essentially assumes that consumers will choose less expensive substitutes to purchase during rising inflation. Less expensive goods will pull down inflationary calculations possibly leading to smaller COLA increases. Some states and municipalities that issue tax-free bonds will be affected.
Bonds issued by municipalities to build certain complexes such as a sports stadium, would no longer qualify for tax exempt status, leaving it to private investors and owners to figure out financing.
Before the President can formally endorse the passage of the tax reform proposals, both the House and Senate will have to agree on one plan. The objective is to have the House and Senate hash out the details of both plans into a single piece of legislation and have it ready for signature by the President by the end of the year.
The evolution of technology has enabled nearly every American to have access to the internet, but at a price. As the number of users grew so did the volume of traffic, which like a highway, eventually needs speed limits.
These speed limits were imposed during the prior administration with the intent of making the internet equally accessible to all users. Many have complained that the utility-like regulations have hindered competition and limited the entrance of new technology.
Data compiled by Internet Live Stats estimates that there are over 3. As a percentage of population, the U. Scandinavian countries have among the highest percentages of users, with Denmark at Many have argued that unnecessary regulations and minimal competition have limited additional users in the U.